Selling a Citizens-Heavy Insurance Book in North Florida: How Depopulation Sets the Price in 2026
By Ricardo Alonso, Founder, Atesa Risk Advisors · September 3, 2026
Key Takeaways
- Clay County's Citizens homeowners book fell from 2,146 policies (July 31, 2025) to 537 (July 31, 2026), down 75%; Putnam −54%, Flagler −73%, Nassau −59% [3][2].
- Citizens assumed 585,432 policies in 2025 [6] and 120,894 through August 18, 2026, 70% of them by Manatee Insurance Exchange and Slide [5]; four 2026 assumption dates remain and 2027 has six [8].
- An offer not more than 20% above Citizens' renewal premium ends a primary-residence policyholder's Citizens eligibility under F.S. 627.351(6)(ii)3. [9]; the agent of record is owed one year of commission or a one-year servicing offer under F.S. 627.351(6)(q)3.a., and nothing after [10].
- Citizens emails the agency principal a .csv of every takeout offer and, on the assumption date, a .csv of every policy assumed [8]. Those files set the Citizens discount in Atesa's framework: −0.10x on the multiple at a 10–30% share, −0.25x above 30%.
- Citizens wrote 1.05% of Florida's homeowners multiperil policies at Q1 2026 [13] and cut 2026 rates 8.7% on average [12]. The discount is shrinking on its own.
Can you sell a Citizens-heavy book of business in North Florida in 2026? Yes — at a 0.10x to 0.25x discount on the revenue multiple, and its size is set less by how many Citizens policies you hold than by three files: the takeout-offer .csv Citizens emails you each cycle, your retention through the policies already assumed, and the takeout carriers your buyer is appointed with. A Clay County book that was 35% Citizens in January may be 17% today without the owner lifting a finger. Whether that revenue is still on the owner's production reports is the question every price turns on.
Clay County had 2,146 Citizens homeowners policies on July 31, 2025 and 537 a year later [3][2]. If you run a personal-lines agency in Orange Park, Middleburg or Keystone Heights, that is not a statistic. That is your book.
I'll disclose the seat I'm in: Atesa buys North Florida and Central Florida books under $1 million in revenue, and the full framework is in our valuation guide and North Florida owner's guide. This post is about one line in it — the Citizens adjustment — and Citizens already mailed you the diligence file that decides how much of it you eat.
What a Citizens-heavy North Florida book looks like today
Depopulation is Citizens' program for moving policies to private insurers — "takeout companies" approved by the Office of Insurance Regulation (OIR) that select the policies they want and assume them on a scheduled date. Citizens assumed 585,432 policies in 2025 [6] and 120,894 more through August 18, 2026 [5]; its statewide count fell from 395,337 at year-end to 266,093 on August 28 [1]. North Florida ran ahead of the state. The personal residential multiperil count — the standard homeowners policy covering wind and everything else — by county [3][2]:
| County | PR-M 7/31/25 | 12/31/25 | 7/31/26 | 12-mo. change | Wind-only (7/31/26) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2,146 | 1,081 | 537 | −75% | — |
| Putnam | 1,129 | 760 | 518 | −54% | — |
| Flagler | 1,562 | 688 | 415 | −73% | 315 |
| Nassau | 891 | 648 | 361 | −59% | 156 |
| Duval | 9,157 | 3,163 | 1,870 | −80% | 257 |
| St. Johns | 3,225 | 1,575 | 893 | −72% | 206 |
| Statewide | 689,420 | 319,669 | 216,279 | −69% | 57,543 |
Four counties, one pattern. Clay lost half of what was left in the first seven months of 2026, and its Citizens premium in force went from $3.4 million to $637,286 [3][2]. Flagler and Nassau also hold wind-only policies, which move slowly — 7,458 assumed this year against 113,148 multiperil [5]. In markets this small — 61 agency locations in Clay, 23 in Nassau [15] — a Citizens-heavy personal-lines book is the norm. Central Florida ran faster still: Orange County 20,386 to 3,993 [4]. The mechanism is what sets your price.
How a takeout moves a policy on the buyer's timeline
A Citizens policy leaves on the depopulation calendar, not on your schedule or the buyer's [8][11]:
- Selection. A takeout company can only select policies serviced by agents appointed with it — "appointed" meaning the carrier has authorized that agent to sell and service its policies. Policies renewing within 90 days of the assumption date are excluded so Citizens can give its 45-day nonrenewal notice [8].
- Notice and choice. Policyholder and agent of record get a notice listing every carrier requesting the policy, with estimated premiums, at least 30 days out [11]; the agency principal gets a .csv of every offer on the agency's policies [8]. A primary-residence policyholder whose offer is not more than 20% above Citizens' renewal premium is no longer eligible for Citizens [9]; if no choice is registered, the policy goes to the selecting carrier with the lowest estimated premium [8].
- Assumption. The transfer is final on the date; there is no longer a 30-day return window [11]. The principal gets a second .csv listing every policy assumed [8].
- The year after. The agent of record keeps unearned commission, and the takeout carrier must either pay the greater of its usual commission or Citizens' for the first year, or offer at least a year of servicing at that rate. An agent unwilling or unable to accept the appointment is paid the first year and nothing further [10].
Step four is the whole valuation problem. A policy assumed by a carrier you're appointed with stays on your production reports and renews like any private-market policy. One assumed by a carrier you're not appointed with pays you for a year, by statute, then belongs to that carrier's appointed agent. Same policy, two different assets — and the buyer can't tell which unless you show them. Citizens already mailed you the diligence file: two .csv files per cycle that say which policies got offers, from whom, at what premium, and which ones left [8].
Why the buyer discounts, and what the discount prices
Our framework starts a mostly-personal-lines book at 1.7x annual commission revenue; the Citizens line takes −0.10x at a 10–30% share and −0.25x above 30%, and the adjusted multiple centers a band 0.15x wide each way.
I'm not going to argue the discount away. The 20% rule makes an offer close to compulsory [9], the calendar runs nine times in 2026 [8], and OIR's approved capacity dwarfs what moves — 1,202,957 policies approved in 2025 against 200,099 removed by mid-July [7] — so nobody can predict which cycle takes which policy. Revenue a third party can reassign to another agency's book is worth less than revenue it can't. The buyer is right about that.
What the buyer is pricing is year two. Year one is protected by statute either way [10]; the discount is the odds the policy leaves after that because nobody in the deal holds the assuming carrier's appointment. Run it on a Clay County book — $250,000 in commission revenue, 91% retention, six appointments, 35% of policies with Citizens on January 1:
| Priced on January's share | Priced on today's share | |
|---|---|---|
| Citizens share | 35% | 17% — half the Citizens policies assumed by carriers the owner holds and still on the owner's reports |
| Adjusted multiple (1.7x base) | 1.45x | 1.60x |
| Range on $250,000 (±0.15x band) | $325,000–$400,000 | $362,500–$437,500 |
Thirty-seven thousand five hundred dollars at the midpoint, same book, same buyer. The revenue didn't change; the share the buyer could defend did, and the only way to defend it is the assumption-date .csv against a current production report. An afternoon's work. The other direction is just as real: policies that went to carriers the owner isn't appointed with are in the one-year window now [10], and a buyer who sees that prices a smaller, cleaner book honestly. No file, and the buyer prices the worst case.
The documentation that shrinks the discount
Three things, in the order a buyer opens them.
1. The takeout-offer history. Every preferred-policy email Citizens sent the principal, .csv attached, for each 2025 and 2026 cycle [8]. Under the 20% rule a policy that got an offer inside the threshold is already gone [9]; the file shows how much of what remains has been selected and passed over.
2. Retention through past takeouts. The assumption-date .csv reconciled to your current production report: which assumed policies are still on your reports, under which carrier, at the carrier's regular commission or the one-year statutory amount [10]. This is the number that moves the multiple, and the number almost nobody brings.
3. The buyer's appointments against the takeout roster. Ask this before you ask for a price. Citizens' 2026 scoreboard [5] and OIR's consent orders — the approvals that fix each carrier's assumption dates [7] — keep the list short:
| Takeout company | Assumed from Citizens, 2026 YTD (8/18/26) [5] | 2026 dates still ahead [7] |
|---|---|---|
| Manatee Insurance Exchange | 42,507 | Sept 15 |
| Slide | 41,717 | Sept 15, Sept 22 |
| Praxis Reciprocal Exchange | 13,435 | Oct 20 |
| Apex Star Reciprocal Exchange | 9,583 | — |
| Southern Oak | 5,399 | Sept 15, Oct 20, Nov 17, Dec 15 |
| Mangrove | 4,314 | Sept 15 |
| Patriot Select | 2,007 | — |
| One Alliance North America | 1,267 | Sept 15 |
| American Integrity | 665 | Oct 20, Nov 17, Dec 15 |
| Florida Peninsula | — | Sept 15, Oct 20 |
Two names took 70% of everything assumed this year [5]. A buyer appointed with both can absorb most of what a North Florida takeout does to your book; one appointed with neither is buying one-year revenue on every policy those two select, and should price it that way.
The 2026 calendar, and where your sale lands on it
Sell this fall and the deal closes in the middle of live cycles. After September 15, the choice letters for the October 20, November 17 and December 15 assumptions mail August 27, September 28 and October 28, with deadlines of October 5, November 5 and December 4 [8]. The 90-day exclusion lets a buyer model exposure by renewal month, not just by count [8]. Then 2027 drops to six dates — February 16, April 20, June 15, August 17, October 19, December 14 [8] — because less is left: Citizens held 293,465 policies on June 5, 2026, its fewest in 25 years [13]. It still held 57% of wind-only [13], so Flagler and Nassau wind-only books will sit in Citizens longer.
Two more numbers a buyer reads. Citizens' 2026 rates fell 8.7% on average, applied at renewal [12], so the commission on every policy that stays drops with the premium. And roughly 40% of the 199,000 policies moved in October 2025 went to lower premiums [14] — the takeout carriers are choosing what they want, and what is still in Citizens after this year's cuts is the harder part to move.
"The Clay County owners who call me this year open with the same worry — that half their Citizens book walked out the door since January. When I ask which carriers took the policies and whether they're appointed there, the answer decides the price more than the Citizens share ever did. The ones who kept the offer emails get the smaller discount. The ones who deleted them get priced like the worst case, and most don't deserve it."
— Ricardo Alonso, Founder, Atesa Risk Advisors
Where a seller should stand on this
I can't tell you which carrier selects your Clay policies on October 20, or whether 2027's six dates finish the job. I can tell you exactly what's in the two .csv files Citizens sends you each cycle, and that a buyer who reads them prices your book on what's true instead of what's possible.
So: every depopulation email since January 2025 into one folder. Reconcile the assumed policies against your current production report — retained under appointment, inside the one-year window, or gone. Recompute your Citizens share today, on policies and on premium. Then ask the buyer which carriers in the table above they hold, and don't take a number from anyone who won't answer. Citizens already mailed you the diligence file. Open it before the buyer does.
FAQ: selling a Citizens-heavy book in North Florida
Q: Can I sell a book of business that is mostly Citizens policies in Florida?
A: Yes. In Atesa's framework a 10–30% Citizens share takes −0.10x off the base multiple and a share above 30% takes −0.25x; a $250,000 personal-lines book prices about $325,000–$400,000 at a 35% share and $362,500–$437,500 once documented takeouts bring the share under 30%.
Q: What happens to my commission when a Citizens policy is taken out?
A: Under F.S. 627.351(6)(q)3.a. the agent of record keeps unearned commission, and the takeout carrier must pay the greater of its usual commission or Citizens' for the first year, or offer at least one year of servicing at that rate. An agent who does not accept the carrier's appointment is paid the first year only.
Q: What is the 20% rule for Citizens takeout offers?
A: Under F.S. 627.351(6)(ii)3., a primary-residence policyholder whose takeout offer is not more than 20% above Citizens' renewal premium is no longer eligible for Citizens and cannot elect to stay. With no choice registered, Citizens assigns the policy to the selecting carrier with the lowest estimated premium.
Q: Which companies are taking policies out of Citizens in 2026?
A: Through August 18, 2026: Manatee Insurance Exchange 42,507, Slide 41,717, Praxis Reciprocal Exchange 13,435, Apex Star Reciprocal Exchange 9,583, Southern Oak 5,399, Mangrove 4,314, Patriot Select 2,007, One Alliance North America 1,267, American Integrity 665. OIR consent orders for September–December 2026 also include Florida Peninsula.
Q: When are the remaining 2026 Citizens assumption dates?
A: September 15, October 20, November 17 and December 15, 2026, with policyholder choice deadlines of September 3, October 5, November 5 and December 4. The 2027 calendar has six dates: February 16, April 20, June 15, August 17, October 19 and December 14.
Q: Should I wait for depopulation to finish before selling my Clay County book?
A: Only if the takeouts are landing with carriers you're appointed with, which the assumption-date .csv against your production report will tell you. Clay's Citizens multiperil count fell 75% between July 2025 and July 2026, so most of the cleanup has already happened. Document what has moved and sell on the current share.
Related Reading
- What Is a Florida Insurance Agency Actually Worth? A Buyer's 2026 Valuation Guide — the full framework this post's Citizens adjustment sits in.
- Selling an Insurance Agency in Jacksonville or North Florida: The 2026 Local Owner's Guide — the county map and the quiet-sale process.
- The Florida Small Agency Market Report — 2026 Edition — agency counts by county, deal flow, and the Citizens factor in one annual reference.
How Atesa Risk Advisors Can Help
We buy North Florida and Central Florida books under $1 million in revenue directly — no listing, no broker fee, an NDA before your numbers, and a range within a week of seeing your production reports and depopulation files. We already write with the markets a takeout disturbs, which lets us price a Citizens-heavy book on what it is today rather than what it was in January. Structures run cash at close plus a retention earn-out, a seller note, or SBA 7(a) financing. If yours sits outside our buy-box, we'll say so on the first call.
Have a Citizens-heavy book and want a real number from a buyer who'll name their appointments? Run it through the valuation tool at atesariskadvisors.com/sell-your-agency or call (904) 900-5063 for a confidential fifteen-minute conversation.
Sources
[1] Citizens Property Insurance Corporation — Policies in Force (Aug. 28, 2026)
[2] Citizens — Detail by County, reported period 07-31-2026 (Aug. 4, 2026)
[3] Citizens — Detail by County, reported periods 07-31-2025 and 12-31-2025 (Dec. 31, 2025)
[4] Citizens — Detail by County, 07-31-2025 compared with 07-31-2026 (Jul. 31, 2026)
[5] Citizens — Policies Assumed in 2026 by Company Name and Policy Type (Aug. 18, 2026)
[9] Florida Statutes §627.351(6)(ii)3. and Citizens FAQ "What is Depopulation?" (Mar. 20, 2026)
[11] Citizens — Depopulation Plan §VII and Personal Lines depopulation page (accessed Sept. 2, 2026)
[13] Florida OIR — Property Insurance Stability Report (Jul. 1, 2026)
[15] U.S. Census Bureau — County Business Patterns 2023, NAICS 524210, Florida by county (2023)
Ricardo Alonso is the Founder of Atesa Risk Advisors, a Florida independent insurance agency in Jacksonville. Licensed 2-20 General Lines Agent and 2-15 Health & Life Agent, with a Master of Liberal Arts in Finance from Harvard University. He grows the agency in part by acquiring North Florida and Central Florida books of business, which is why the depopulation .csv files in this post are the first thing he asks a seller for.
Educational disclaimer: This article is general educational information and is not an offer to purchase, a valuation opinion, an appraisal, or tax or legal advice. Agency and book-of-business pricing varies with diligence findings, market conditions, and deal structure; consult your CPA and attorney before entering any transaction. For a personalized conversation, contact Atesa Risk Advisors, an independent, RamseyTrusted brokerage licensed in Florida (2-20 General Lines).